Opto Circuits (Rs 77.5): In our review of this stock last October, we had expected a decline to Rs 96 and had advised investors to hold the stock with a stop at Rs 95. Opto Circuits breached this level last December to bottom at Rs 69.5 in the same month. Resistance levels for the next three months would be Rs 104 and Rs 126. Investors with a short to medium term horizon can sell the stock at either of these levels. Stop loss for those holding the stock can be at Rs 65. If this level is penetrated, the stock can decline to Rs 56 or Rs 45.
Nitin Fire Protection (Rs 118.4): It was an excruciating climb down for Nitin Fire Protection Industries from the January 2008 peak at Rs 666. The sharp spike in December 2008 that made the stock more than double in value from the trough at Rs 123 could not sustain for more than two weeks and the stock is currently wallowing at life-time lows. The short-term trend in the stock is very weak and it can decline further in the upcoming months. But due to limited history, it is not possible to identify subsequent supports from the chart. Investors can exit the stock in rallies and consider re-investing on a weekly close above Rs 171. Next resistance would be at Rs 205. Long-term outlook will turn positive only on a weekly close above Rs 250.
HDFC Bank (Rs 801.8): The decline in 2008 halted at the key long-term support at Rs 790 in HDFC Bank. As indicated in this column in October 2008, the support below Rs 790 is at Rs 639. The sequence of lower peaks was maintained by the rally in the last two months of 2008 indicating that the long-term down-trend that began in January 2008 is continuing. But a sideways movement between Rs 800 and Rs 1,200 is possible for a few months before it makes a decisive move in either direction.Investors with a penchant for risk can buy the stock in declines with a stop at Rs 780. The resistance band that can arrest the rallies over the next year is between Rs 1,120 and Rs 1,200. The long-term view will turn positive only on a close above Rs 1,200. Next resistance would be at Rs 1,312 and then Rs 1,450.
Chambal Fertilisers and Chemicals (Rs 34.4): Chambal Fertilizers bottomed at Rs 29 in November 2008 and is attempting to stabilise itself since then. The stock has strong long-term support in the band between Rs 30 and Rs 32. The next support on the long-term charts is around Rs 27.Though the stock could hold these supports over the next year, a sharp rally does not appear likely. Resistances for the next six months would be at Rs 43 and then Rs 57. Investors with a limited investment horizon can divest their holdings at either of these levels. Stop loss for short term investors can be at Rs 34 while long-term investors can hold with a deeper stop at Rs 26.
Jyoti Structures (Rs 47.6): The bottom is not yet in sight in Jyoti Structures and the stock appears to be headed towards its October 2008 trough at Rs 32 again. The smart recovery in November and December that made the stock rally from Rs 32 to Rs 81 appears to be a flash in the pan as it is once more in a relentless slide. The chart pattern in the first two months of this year indicates that buyers have vanished from this counter. Investors holding the stock can hope for a recovery from the former trough at Rs 32. But any rebound can be capped at Rs 75 or at the most at Rs 103. The medium-term view will turn positive only on a weekly close above Rs 100.
Sintex Industries (Rs 73.4): It has been a very disappointing performance by Sintex Industries since October 2008. Though many mid-and large cap stocks doubled in value from that point, the rally was very muted in Sintex industries and the stock is now trading 43 per cent below the 2008 lows. Next reliable support on the long-term charts is Rs 30.
Medium-term resistances would be at Rs 112 and then Rs 125. Considering the downside risk, it would be advisable to switch from this stock at current juncture and consider re-investment on a close above Rs 125.
Tata Motors (Rs 138.6): Though Sensex is holding above 2005 lows, Tata Motors is hovering around levels last recorded in 2002! This stock peaked at Rs 965 in May 2006 and after fluctuating between Rs 600 and Rs 950 for two years, it crumbled in the second half of 2008 to the trough of Rs 122. The sideways movement between Rs 125 and Rs 190 recorded over the last two months does not inspire confidence and implies that the medium term trend continues to be down and so does the risk of a decline to Rs 108. Decline below Rs 100 would mean that the stock is heading for the 2001 trough at Rs 56.
Key resistances for the next 12 months would be at Rs 200 and Rs 250. A close above Rs 450 is required to signal that the long-term view is turning positive in the stock. It however needs to be borne in mind that this stock has a history of recording a brilliant turnaround in the face of adversity and giving bountiful returns to investors. Investors who bought this stock in 2001 or 2002 would still be holding profits. Investors should therefore use declines to Rs 100 or below to accumulate the stock with a long-term perspective. Long-term floor for Tata Motors ought to be either around Rs 50 or Rs 100.
Vijaya Bank (Rs 21): This stock declined below the key support at Rs 40 in June 2006 and has been trading below this level ever since. The short and medium-term view for this stock are negative and further decline cannot be ruled out in the near future. Supports for the stock would be available at Rs 18 and then Rs 16. Near-term resistances for the stock would be at Rs 28 and Rs 32. Fresh purchases are advised only on a rally beyond the second resistance.
Nitin Fire Protection (Rs 118.4): It was an excruciating climb down for Nitin Fire Protection Industries from the January 2008 peak at Rs 666. The sharp spike in December 2008 that made the stock more than double in value from the trough at Rs 123 could not sustain for more than two weeks and the stock is currently wallowing at life-time lows. The short-term trend in the stock is very weak and it can decline further in the upcoming months. But due to limited history, it is not possible to identify subsequent supports from the chart. Investors can exit the stock in rallies and consider re-investing on a weekly close above Rs 171. Next resistance would be at Rs 205. Long-term outlook will turn positive only on a weekly close above Rs 250.
HDFC Bank (Rs 801.8): The decline in 2008 halted at the key long-term support at Rs 790 in HDFC Bank. As indicated in this column in October 2008, the support below Rs 790 is at Rs 639. The sequence of lower peaks was maintained by the rally in the last two months of 2008 indicating that the long-term down-trend that began in January 2008 is continuing. But a sideways movement between Rs 800 and Rs 1,200 is possible for a few months before it makes a decisive move in either direction.Investors with a penchant for risk can buy the stock in declines with a stop at Rs 780. The resistance band that can arrest the rallies over the next year is between Rs 1,120 and Rs 1,200. The long-term view will turn positive only on a close above Rs 1,200. Next resistance would be at Rs 1,312 and then Rs 1,450.
Chambal Fertilisers and Chemicals (Rs 34.4): Chambal Fertilizers bottomed at Rs 29 in November 2008 and is attempting to stabilise itself since then. The stock has strong long-term support in the band between Rs 30 and Rs 32. The next support on the long-term charts is around Rs 27.Though the stock could hold these supports over the next year, a sharp rally does not appear likely. Resistances for the next six months would be at Rs 43 and then Rs 57. Investors with a limited investment horizon can divest their holdings at either of these levels. Stop loss for short term investors can be at Rs 34 while long-term investors can hold with a deeper stop at Rs 26.
Jyoti Structures (Rs 47.6): The bottom is not yet in sight in Jyoti Structures and the stock appears to be headed towards its October 2008 trough at Rs 32 again. The smart recovery in November and December that made the stock rally from Rs 32 to Rs 81 appears to be a flash in the pan as it is once more in a relentless slide. The chart pattern in the first two months of this year indicates that buyers have vanished from this counter. Investors holding the stock can hope for a recovery from the former trough at Rs 32. But any rebound can be capped at Rs 75 or at the most at Rs 103. The medium-term view will turn positive only on a weekly close above Rs 100.
Sintex Industries (Rs 73.4): It has been a very disappointing performance by Sintex Industries since October 2008. Though many mid-and large cap stocks doubled in value from that point, the rally was very muted in Sintex industries and the stock is now trading 43 per cent below the 2008 lows. Next reliable support on the long-term charts is Rs 30.
Medium-term resistances would be at Rs 112 and then Rs 125. Considering the downside risk, it would be advisable to switch from this stock at current juncture and consider re-investment on a close above Rs 125.
Tata Motors (Rs 138.6): Though Sensex is holding above 2005 lows, Tata Motors is hovering around levels last recorded in 2002! This stock peaked at Rs 965 in May 2006 and after fluctuating between Rs 600 and Rs 950 for two years, it crumbled in the second half of 2008 to the trough of Rs 122. The sideways movement between Rs 125 and Rs 190 recorded over the last two months does not inspire confidence and implies that the medium term trend continues to be down and so does the risk of a decline to Rs 108. Decline below Rs 100 would mean that the stock is heading for the 2001 trough at Rs 56.
Key resistances for the next 12 months would be at Rs 200 and Rs 250. A close above Rs 450 is required to signal that the long-term view is turning positive in the stock. It however needs to be borne in mind that this stock has a history of recording a brilliant turnaround in the face of adversity and giving bountiful returns to investors. Investors who bought this stock in 2001 or 2002 would still be holding profits. Investors should therefore use declines to Rs 100 or below to accumulate the stock with a long-term perspective. Long-term floor for Tata Motors ought to be either around Rs 50 or Rs 100.
Vijaya Bank (Rs 21): This stock declined below the key support at Rs 40 in June 2006 and has been trading below this level ever since. The short and medium-term view for this stock are negative and further decline cannot be ruled out in the near future. Supports for the stock would be available at Rs 18 and then Rs 16. Near-term resistances for the stock would be at Rs 28 and Rs 32. Fresh purchases are advised only on a rally beyond the second resistance.
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