Monday, June 1, 2009

BSE Sensex Index Chart Pattern Sensex chart: next stop 16500?

For the 'uber' bears, one last straw remains. The crossing of the 50 day EMA above the 200 day EMA. The bears' back should get broken next week.'

The 50 day EMA smoothly moved above the 200 day EMA as expected. All three EMAs are now moving up along with the Sensex - which closed higher for the 12th straight week. Must be a record of some kind.

One last glimmer of hope remains for the bears, but it is a very, very faint hope. I had mentioned about the possibility of an 'island reversal' because the big gap on the Sensex chart created on Mon. May 18, '09 remained unfilled. Last week's trading came no where close to filling the gap.

The 3 months bar chart pattern of the BSE Sensex will clearly show that the last two weeks' trading has been at a significantly higher level leaving the gap untouched:-

The slow stochastic, MACD, ROC and RSI are all moving up. The one-day's correction on Tue. May 26, '09 did bring the slow stochastic below the overbought zone, but looks like it is ready to go back.

Notice how the slow stochastic remained in the overbought zone right through the month of April '09 and it looks like it will remain overbought for a while longer. The bullish sentiment is too strong and may last till the budget presentation in the first week of July '09.


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