Wednesday, July 15, 2009

Economic Alert: Inflation seen down 1.38 pc y/y on July 4

The wholesale price index (WPI) is forecast to have dropped 1.38 per cent in the 12 months to July 4, a smaller fall than the previous week after a fuel price rise, If realised, it would be the fifth straight annual fall in the WPI's. The index fell an annual 1.55 per cent in the previous week.

The annual change in the WPI, the main measure of price pressures in India, turned negative in early June for the first time since weekly data was released in the 1977/78 fiscal year.

Wholesale prices have been rising on a week-on-week basis since March, and a rise in state-set fuel prices in early July is seen pushing the index up further in early July. Annual consumer price inflation was firm at 8.63 per cent in May.

It's a large week-on-week increase due to the fuel price hike. Primary articles could pick up, but fuel is the main thing this week. India unexpectedly raised gasoline and diesel prices by as much as 10 per cent in early July, its first increase this year, passing some of oil's rally into an economy just beginning to find its feet amid a global recession.

The data is due noon (0630 GMT) on Thursday


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