Monday, October 12, 2009

BOR: Market Outlook: Indian markets will have flat to positive opening today

Market Outlook: Indian markets will have flat to positive opening today as Wall Street advances; Dow hits fresh 2009 high & Asia trading firm; Shanghai Composite, Hang Seng up. Nifty has supports at 4880-4900 and resistances are at 5000-5040. We feel overall trend stands neutral as market is over stretched and is due for correction. We are in the result season so expect stock specific action rather market performance.

Global events to watch for today:

  • US Holiday: Columbus Day

Global indices Update @ 9:

Dow Jones : 9864 (+78.07)

Nasdaq : 2139 (+15.35)

S&P 500 : 1071 (+06.01)

Nikkei 225 : 10016 (+183.9)

Hang seng : 21483 (-15.46)

SGX CNX Nifty : 4933 (+02)

INR / 1 USD : 46.50

CRUDE OIL : 72.31 (+00.44)

Gold : 1049 (+01.20)

On the global counter: Wall Street advances; Dow hits fresh 2009 high & Asia trading firm; Shanghai Composite, Hang Seng up. In the US markets, the Dow Jones hit a fresh 2009 high. After a dip in initial trade, stocks recovered their losses on earnings optimism. Chevron said it expected its third-quarter earnings to be significantly higher than the second quarter, while technology stocks got a boost from some upbeat analysts comments. In important data watch, the trade balance unexpectedly dropped to 30.71 billion dollar in August, economists had expected it to widen to 33 billion dollars.

Stocks in action for the day: Lupin, EID Parry, RIL, REC, Peninsula, HDFC

Results today: HDFC, Axis Bank, Astra Microwave, DCB, Exide Industries, Geojit BNP Paribas, Infomedia 18, Praj Industries, Sintex Industries, TTK Prestige

Anil Ambani: -Reaches out to Mukesh Ambani to reconcile differences -Says believe disagreements can be sorted in cordial manner

RIL says -Contentious issues can be resolved by mutual dialogue -Dispute under litigation not merely a family matter

RIL to Oil Sec: -NTPC still not signing GSPAs for Kawas and Gandhar plants -2.01 mmscmd of gas allocated to Gandhar and Kawas unutilized -Ready to sign GSPAs with NTPC with caveats

Peninsula Land Q2 (QoQ): -Net profit up 121.83% at Rs 72.87 crore versus Rs 32.85 crore -Sales up 46.21% at Rs 168.73 crore versus Rs 115.4 crore -Peninsula Land OPMs at 47.49% versus 38.47% Peninsula Land Q2 (YoY) -Sales up 52.64% to Rs 168.73 crore -Reported Net Profit up 33.46% to Rs 72.87 crore -Adjusted Net profit up 43% from Rs 58 crore to Rs 83.1 crore.

Indiabulls Power IPO opens today, closes October 15; issue of 33.98 crore shares, price band Rs 40-45/share

REC board meet on October 16 to mull follow on public offer

Biyani recasting Pantaloon to unlock value, web of 22 companies will be consolidated into 3 main verticals: retail, logistics and financial services – Mint -Teva and Chillcott have sued Lupin of patent infringement for oral contraceptive pill

Crompton to acquire Latin American company for $600 million

Syndicate Bank cuts interest rates for housing & auto loans under special scheme

Ispat still in NSE F&O curb

Board meet: Bajaj Electricals on stock split, QIP issue

EID Parry acquires 76% stake in Sadashiva Sugars ((ET says acquisition cost Rs 50 cr))

LG Balakrishnan calls off acquisition of MM Gears

Bhagyanagar India buy back at maximum Rs 40/share

Jindal Poly buy back opens today

Bhilwara Technical Textiles to resume trading, no circuit filter today

Poddar Pigments open offer at maximum Rs 42/share


allvoices

1 comment:

TSR said...

TSR NIFTY UPDATES- Week beginning 12.10.09 -Visit www.Niftyviews.com Charts attached
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Dear Friends,
The markets last week reacted to what I call the I.B.U effect. Three stocks covered in last weeks newsletter stole the limelight last week were Infosys Bharti and Unitech. Week on week markets closed down 2.7%. The reason why I avoided Reliance was that it was at best market performer. It makes me surprised how an accounting exercise like Bonus shares can be a Diwali Bonus for Ril shareholders. Reliance turnover in value terms is still in Top 10 in Nifty Index. Moreover the only party that stands benefited is the taxman on the issue of new shares with stamp duty benefits.


Infosys is trading at four quarters TTM Pe of 19.79. Infosys has projected a net profit growth of 4.8% to 4.4%. At best the stock should trade at 16X earnings. For a 5% grower to trade at 20X Forward pe is expensive for me even at current valuations. Last week after the Bharti-Mtn deal when the whole media was upbeat about the telecom sector. I had pointed out “Traders who believed that Bharti will outperform the markets should go and study the subscriber additions and the ARPU of existing telecom operators. I strongly believe that the telecom sector would slowly move towards valuation parameters of power utility.” In last week’s edition. It doesn’t come as a surprise for me that by Friday the markets had adjusted themselves to the new fundamentals of a once sunrise industry. Going ahead as growth fizzles out the stocks will start adjusting to the 8X-12X price band. The stock price movement reflects that over the long term the price is bound to adjust with the fundamentals of the stock and the deviation between the fundamentals and the stock price is zero.

One more distinct observation made last week was that the market would refuse to fall unless it frustrates the last standing bear to the farthest incident. Do note that I personally believe that on an index front we might remain range bound till the liquidity tap fastens or restricts itself going further. Suzlon will be an interesting stock going ahead. Recently company raised 20 mln$ from the issuance of Gdr and Fccb. The company has been going through a rough patch for some time. I fail to understand the logic of the promoters in selling there stake and bring funds raised via stake sell as soft loan for the company. In case the company needed funds then the company could have easily raised funds via equity dilution the way Unitech did. Suzlon still has a debt book of more then 3 billion$. Moreover the appreciating rupee will start hitting the exporter going forward. Tough time ahead for Tulsi Tanti.

We would release a list of five stocks for Long term portfolio Buy in any markets on the eve of Muharat trading.The list would be made available to Weekly clients. Some stock ideas will also be uploaded at www.Niftyviews.com .Do check in.
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