Friday, February 18, 2011

Technical Outlook : Bullish sentiment prevails.....

Market Outlook: Indian markets are expected to open in a sea green wave on the back of constructive momentum seen on the global counters. US mkts scale new multi-year highs to close moderately up, while Asian mkts trade higher; Hang Seng, Kospi, Taiwan up. Overall outlook for the markets today is that of cautious optimism as the bulls must hold the Nifty above the 5480 levels sustain ably to manage an upmove in the coming session. The support for the Nifty is at 5420 and resistance at 5600.

Results Today: Nestle India

Global events to watch

Þ No major events to watch

Global indices Update @ 8:

Dow Jones : 12318 (+29.97)

NASDAQ : 2831 (+06.02)

Nikkei 225 : 10839 (+02.55)

Hang seng : 23419 (+117.3)

SGX CNX Nifty : 5560 (+10.00)

INR / 1 USD : 45.38

Technical Outlook : Bullish sentiment prevails.....

So, the market rolls along as expected and has now managed to reach the second target. Recall that the first target projected when the market began rallying on last Friday was at 5435. When this was reached we had pushed the target expectations to 5550 and we are now there. Key element of yesterday trading was, yet again, absence of sellers despite higher levels of index. So the situation of skeptical long traders continues, it appears. The strong close in both Nifty and Bank Nifty shows that the major bull continues to remain in control.

Today's chart is Bank Nifty (instead of the usual NF chart). The index had moved out of a tight consolidation yesterday and that presages a good advance ahead. Today may therefore belong to Bank Nifty. Immediate resistance is 11235 which is 62% of the last swing down but bigger resistances are seen around 11400-500 levels. The counter has enough volatility to reach any price it wants- it is akin to Silver in the commodity markets! Those that are long should continue to hold. On the NF, a continuation beyond yesterday high would be a signal to continue to hold on to the longs in expectation of 5600-5625. Yesterday also we found hardly any call shorting in Feb series (7 lac addition in Calls compared 32L addition in puts in only the nearest two strikes). So market is still leaving room for advances. Take advantage of that.

Stock moves were quite dispersed yesterday. But good breadth indicates the return of the retail trader and investor. Today should be a good day unless some external events conspire to dampen sentiments.

Strategy for the day: Conditions continue to be quite opposite for further advances and hence one may maintain a bullish bias on the market for today. Stocks across a wider spectrum should be in action today and therefore traders may have an easier time. The day could belong to Banking stocks and therefore readers are advised to keep a sharp lookout for trading opportunities here. Lots of mid cap stocks were also up yesterday so some momentum play in the mid cap area could also be possible.

Stocks to buy if market is strong


Prices for the last few sessions had been moving in a tight sideways range, forming small ranged moves and holding support of a valuation around 378-80 levels. They finally witnessed some sharp buying last session that propelled them higher and closed well end of the day. Looking good, go long.




Buy above 414

6 points

424 / 430

Or dips near 403-01

6 points

411-12 / 416


This jewellery counter rocketed out of a sideways range in the last week and with the range being too long, prices were seen consolidating near the highs this week. However with yesterdays rise, they seemed to have renewed the advance and are looking set to move higher. RSI has bounced up from 60. Consider buying.




Buy above 243

3.5 points

248 / 251-52

Stocks to sell if market is weak


After five consecutive rising sessions, prices hit overhead resistance during session before last and being unable to move past them led prices to turn and close lower last session. On follow thru we could see some dip before the rise may attempt to resume. Sell if lower.




Sell below 87

1.5 points

84.5 / 83.5


Buy Nifty above 5560 stop 5540 rise to 5620.

Buy Nifty dips to near 5502 with stop 5485 for rise to 5615.


Buy Mphasis around 685-688 stop below 682 target 696-699

Sell Auro Phar below 237 stop above 240.50 target 230

Stocks in Action for the day: Ackruti City, DB Realty, Noida Toll, Idea

CBI sources say Kanimozhi likely to be summoned soon in 2G scam -Kanimozhi is DMK Chief M Karunanidhi's daughter

Noida Toll in focus -DND rolls back toll hike after protests -25% hike in private car toll rates withdrawn -Roll back after Noida opposes move -BJP led protestors blocked DND tollway earlier today

DoT -DoT mulls legal opinion on action w.r.t Idea-Spice merger -Legal opinion by govt law officer offers multiple option -Legal opinion states violation in 12 license agreements -Legal opinion suggests DoT issue 12 SCNs for 6 circles -6 circles include AP, Delhi, Haryana, Maharashtra -6 circles include Karnataka & Punjab

CBI sources say -All telcos CEOs, senior officials named by CAG to meet -Companies already appeared before CBI: Unitech, Reliance Comm, Swan, S Tel, Loop, Vodafone, Idea Cellular, MTS, Tata Comm -Dishnet Wireless, Datacom Allianz Infra yet to appear

CBI summons Prashant Ruia - Group CEO, Essar Group in 2G scam 2G Scam Update -Essar group links with Loop Tele under CBI focus Loop Tele promoted by Essar Group 2G Scam Update -Allegation that Essar violated cross-holding norms

Essar Group says -Essar in full compliance with DoT & other norms -As & when information is sought, it will be provided

Coal Minister says -GoM to meet again to decide on coal block clearances -GoM to meet again in 2nd week of March

Environment Ministry says -GoM discussed how to balance environment & coal issues -No decision taken yet in this GoM -Final report on go, no-go will be submitted on March 15 -Objective of GoM not to substitute exec duty of MoEF

Essar CEO & MD Prashant Ruia examined questioned by CBI on his connection with Loop Telecom (ET)

Allied Digital board meet to consider buy back

GVK Power in advanced talks to buy a coal mine owned by Australia’s Hancock prospecting (ET)

Govt likely to exclude companies bill a cap on subsidiaries providing benefits to the real estate & infrastructure sector (BS)

Reliance Communications signs an agreement with the broadcast company Radio Netherlands worldwide (BS)

Bharati Shipyard- Apeejay joint venture faces hurdle with Dhamra port raising objections on the land allotment for Rs 2000 crore shipyard project (FE)

DB Realty deal with Starwood in doldrums as the private equity firm said to have dropped the plan of investing Rs 450 crore in the company (DNA)

C Sivasankaran the promoter of telecom company S-Tel & Ackruti City are investing Rs 1000 crore to develop a 5 star hotel on a 5.4 acre plot in Mumbai (BL)

KMC Speciality Hospitals Ltd rights issue closes today

Raymond set to sell part of Thane land for Rs 250 crore finally entering the realty sector (Mint)

Bank of Maharashtra: GOI to infuse Rs 352 crore via pref allotment

Allahabad Bank board meet today to consider allotment of shares to GOI to infuse funds via preferential allotment

Andhra Bank board meet today to consider allotment of shares to GOI to infuse funds via preferential allotment

Coal India: Ex dividend by Rs 3.5

Recommencement of trading in equity shares of Hindustan Motors Limited pursuant to reduction of capital on February 21

Kirloskar Oil to sell bearing operations to Pierburg India for Rs 87 crore


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