Market Outlook: Indian markets are expected to open with a gap down on the back of disappointing support from the global counters. On the global space Asian markets trading weak; Hang Seng, Nikkei down. We are now into earning season which will keep markets on stock specific actions rather than industry. Overall outlook for the markets today is that of cautious optimism with 5600 levels as a major support.
Results today: Container Corp, PFC, Indo Asian Fusegear, Vesuvius India, Zee Entertainment, IDBI Bank
Global events to watch.
Þ Housing Starts
Global indices Update @ 8:
Dow Jones : 12201 (-140.2)
NASDAQ : 2735 (-29.27)
Nikkei 225 : 9413 (-142.6)
Hang seng : 23496 (-334.2)
SGX CNX Nifty : 5696 (- 43.00)
Gold (USD/t oz.) : 1492 (+01.20)
Nymex Crude (F) : 106 (- 00.64)
INR / 1 USD : 44.27
Technical Outlook : Global markets keeps market under check.
Everyone came to the market with a bullish view, traded bullish and waited for the market to give them money. It did, for a brief while. But after hitting a level slightly above the mark, the entire gains were given away. The way the market fell towards the mid of the session clearly showed that many of the day traders who were long from the morning were surrendering their longs and some were even going short. This leaves the market at an interesting stage. Bottom pickers, value hunters were thrashed yesterday and many probably gave up.
Be that as it may, we shift focus to the technical signals based on the systems that we follow. The rally failed to clear the moving average bands in both 30 as well as 60 minute time frames and has actually flashed a fresh sell signal in these two time frames. We should not argue any further against the trend in case there is a follow thru to the downside today.
Shares of Infosys Technologies extended last Friday's steep losses on Monday as well, with the stock down another 3% in the wake of a series of analyst downgrades and reduction in the target price. Among the BSE sectoral indices, the BSE Realty index was the top loser, the index lost 3.1% followed by BSE IT index slipped 2.8%, while, BSE Teck index lost 2.3%. BSE Mid-Cap index and BSE Small-Cap index lost 1.2% and 0.8% respectively.
Dips are now expected to make higher bottoms. Option activity was visible in both calls and puts to even degree. So market seems to be betting on some strangles here. We dont advise that at the moment. Better to play directional long options right now. If market goes higher then the participations will increase while if it dips, people may just creep back into their shells and wait.
Hence we expect that the market should make a bottom here as price relations from different sets of prior swings are also placed around the current levels.
Stocks to buy if market is strong
MRPL
This stock has seen some good buying momentum on daily chart. On Monday the stock showed strength in spite of market being all over the place. Volumes have increased on the daily charts indicating good buying can be seen in the stock.RSI is also showing good strength for more upside potential from these levels.
| Entry | Stop | Target |
| Buy above 74 | 1.5 points | 76.50 / 78 / 79 |
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COROMANDEL FERTILIZER
This stock has shown good upside movement since the past couple of trading session. On Mondays trading session we witnessed that stock was holding onto its gain even though the market was all over the place. On daily chart we can witnessed the volume is at the highest level since 2months n RSI is well above crucial levels of 60 which indicates Bulls are acting strong in the counter. BUY
| Entry | Stop | Target |
| Buy above 344 | 3 points | 349 / 352 |
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Stocks to sell if market is weak
GUJ FLOURO
AFTER FORMING HIGHER TOPS HIGHER BOTTOMS IN THE PREVIOUS MONTH MONTH, THIS NEWLY LISTED COUNTER HAS FADED AWAY IN THE PAST WEEK. THIS SHOWS THE BEARS ARE DIFNITELY IN THE COUNTER. rsi HAS PLUMMETED IN THE PAST WEEK AND DOWNWARD MOMENTUM CAN BE EXPECTED FURTHER.
| Entry | Stop | Target |
| Sell below 345 | 347.50 | 342 / 340 |
| Sell on rallies 348 | 350.50 | 345 / 343 |
NIFTY RECOMMENDATIONS FOR THE DAY
Sell nifty below 5725 for target 5675/5650 stop above 25
buy nifty above 5765 for target of 5810/5840 and stop below 5735
STOCK FUTURES RECOMMENDATIONS FOR THE DAY
Sell Polaris below 195 stop above 197.10 tgt 193/191/190
Buy Canara bank above 662 stop below 656 tgt 668/674
Stocks in Action for the day: Moser Baer, M&M, HDFC Bank, Cairn
Cairn India - -Petronas to sell Cairn India stake today -Petronas to sell up to 28.3 crore shares via block deal (14.9%) -Indicative price band between Rs 325-340/share -Petronas to raise around USD 2 billion via Cairn India stake sale -Petronas selling stake to institutional investors -BoA ML sole broker to Cairn deal
Hotel Leela to exchanges -Chairman’s statement in response to a hypothetical question posed to him -Hypothetical question of a hostile take-over threat from ITC -Casual remark based on the relationship chairman has enjoyed with the Ambani family for over four decades -Remark should not be construed as any definitive measure being planned -PTI quoted chairman saying Hotel Leela will partner Mukesh Ambani in case of takeover threat from ITC
HDFC Bank Q4 -Net profit at Rs 1,115 crore versus Rs 837 crore (YoY) ((Estimated: Rs 1099 crore)) -NII at Rs 2,839 crore versus Rs 2,351 crore (YoY) ((Estimated: Rs 2824 crore)) -Gross NPA at 1.05% versus 1.43% (YoY) -Net NPA at 0.2% versus 0.3% (YoY) -Okays 5-for-1 stock split
Upgrades -UBS ups HDFC Bank target to Rs 2500 from Rs 2400 -RBS ups HDFC Bank target to Rs 2574 from Rs 2551 -Morgan Stanley ups HDFC Bank target to Rs 2650 from Rs 2550 -DB ups HDFC Bank target to Rs 2610 from Rs2525 -Credit Suisse ups HDFC Bank target to Rs 2738 from Rs 2499
CMC Q4 consolidated (QoQ)– sales inline, but margins and profits lower -Net sales up 7.4% at Rs 292.9 crore versus Rs 272.64 crore (estimated Rs 292.5 crore) -EBITDA at Rs 52.11 crore versus Rs 51.85 crore (estimated Rs 58.4 crore) -EBITDA Margin at 17.8% versus 18.9% -PAT down 3.2% at Rs 43.9 crore versus Rs 45.39 crore (estimated Rs 48.4 crore)
Persistent Q4 consolidated (QoQ) – sales and profits higher, margins lower due to 10% wage hike in January; FY12 guidance strong at 30% dollar revenues growth with a 3-4% pricing increase -Revenues up 9.2% at Rs 212.8 crore versus Rs 194.9 crore (Poll Rs 207 crore) -EBITDA down 8.8 % at 38.1 crore versus Rs 42.775 crore (Poll Rs 39 crore) -EBITDA margin at 17.9% versus 21.94% -PAT down 8.6% at Rs 33.1 crore versus Rs 36.24 crore (poll Rs 31.5 crore) -FY11 dollar revenue at USD 170.24 million (versus guidance of USD 167-170 million) Persistent Volume growth at 8% in Q4 -FY12 sales seen up 29% at USD 220 million -FY12 should see pricing improvement of 3-4% -Expect to give 7-8% wage hike on an average in FY12
Deccan update -SEBI allows Deccan Chronicle promoters to increase their voting rights -Deccan Promoters allowed to increase stake from 63.37% to 73.83% -Company to buy-back upto 3.45 crore shares or 14.17% of paid-up equity
Aditya Birla Group Says -Have acquired Sweden-based Domsjo Fibre AB for $ 340 m -Acquisition via units Thai Rayon Public Co, Indo-Bharat Eyes group revenues of USD 65 billion by 2015
-To rely on inorganic growth to meet group revenue targets -Organic growth not enough to meet group's 2015 revenues targets -Metal, cement, telecom continue to be flagship divisions
Axis's Enam Buyout RBI nod for Axis's Enam buy out expected very soon: Sources RBI wants to ensure Enam promoters don't own more than 5% of Axis Axis gives undertaking Enam Promoter holding not more than 5% Enam shareholders got 3.3% stake in Axis as a result of buyout Banks can't hold more than 10% of Networth in one subsidiary: RBI sources Banks must not invest >20% of Networth in finance cos: RBI Sources
Upgrades -Goldman Sachs ups IndusInd Bank target to Rs 340 from Rs 320 -JPMorgan ups IndusInd Bank target to Rs 325 from Rs 300
Shipping Corporation of India has signed contract for acquisition of 2 Supramax Bulk Carriers of 57000 DWT each with Grand Yard Investments on April 15, 2011.
Strides Arcolab has received USFDA approval for its new Sterile injectible facility at Bangalore.
D B Corp has launched Dainik Bhaskar in Dhanbad, Jharkhand.
Punj Lloyd has won railway contract worth Rs 114 crores for building a railway line for the Uttar Pradesh Rajya Vidyut Utpadan Nigam. The contract is scheduled to be completed in fifteen months.
JIK Industries has signed Memorandum of Understanding with Searange Houseware, Hong Kong for outsourcing co-operation and introducing of Searange’s products under JIK’a brands and promote, sell and distribute the same through its marketing and sales channels to the hospitality industry and other segments and customers.
Parabolic Drugs has been granted Certificate of Suitability for its key molecule Cefixime in the European Union. The drug, an oral third generation Cephalosporin, has a market size of 839 million (September 2010, IMS).
Nu Tek India is eyeing overseas markets to further revenue growth and also improve margins, the company said in filing to the stock exchanges. It recently signed a contract with Tigo, a GSM operator in Gautemala, for supply, construction and erection of tower sites.
Aban Offshore has received orders from ONGC for the deployment of jack-up rigs Aban III and Aban IV for a period of three years each. The total value of these firm orders is approximately $138 million (equivalent to Rs 620 crores).
Aurobindo Pharma has received final approval for its Venlafaxine Extended Release Capsules from the USFDA. These capsules are prescribed for treatment of major depressive disorder and falls under Neurological therapeutic category.
UTV Motion Pictures and Prime Focus have announced a multi-film deal under which the latter will service the entire production and post production requirement of a slate of UTV’s films, including visual effects, digital intermediate, sound, lab services etc.
Tera Software has received a work order from Andhra Pradesh Civil Supplies Corporation for the first phase of AADHAAR implementation in Rangareddy and Adilabad districts out of seven districts in Andhra Pradesh.
IRB Infrastructure Developers has emerged as the preferred bidder for the project of six laning of Ahmedabad to Vadodara section of NH-8 and improvement of existing Ahmedabad Vadodara Expressway under Phase V on design build finance operate transfer (DBFOT) toll basis.
Fame India board meet today to consider rights Issue
Listing today: TCI developers post demerger from TCI
F&O Ban: Deccan Chronicle, Kingfisher, Suzlon, Videocon
NewsWire18: SC issues notice to Sesa Goa on JSW Steel plea in Bellary Steel unit buy case
Kapil Sibal has asked law ministry for its view on a transaction in which Tata Group exited Idea cellular by selling its 48% stake to Aditya Birla Group – ET
Henkel AG to sell its entire stake of 50.97% in its Indian arm to Jyothy Labs with an undisclosed amount – ET
Tata Power to raise $ 400 million through a 60 year non-callable hybrid bond issue for five years
M&M in talks with Mitsubishi for a global strategic alliance to source farm equipment products & expand its presence globally (ET)
Co-operative sugar mills in Maharashtra resort to distress sale of sugar around 8 lakh quintals worth Rs 200 crore in last one week (BS)
Cotton prices dip 14% in 15 days fell from Rs 63,000 to Rs 53,000-54000 a candy in the spot market (BS)
Moser Baer in talks with Standard Chartered Private Equity to raise $ 200 million for power foray (TOI)
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