Monday, April 11, 2011

Technical Outlook : Weekend witnesses some profit booking...

Market Outlook: Indian markets are expected to open in a negative terrain with some profit booking attempts expected near to days high. On the global space Wall Street ends lower; crude at 2.5 year highs while Asian markets trading mixed; Hang Seng up, Nikkei down. Overall outlook for the markets today is that of cautious optimism with 5800 levels as a major support.

Global events to watch

Þ No major events to watch

Global indices Update @ 8:

Dow Jones : 12380 (-29.44)

NASDAQ : 2780 (-15.72)

Nikkei 225 : 9736 (-32.01)

Hang seng : 24426 (+29.96)

SGX CNX Nifty : 5838 (-21.00)

Gold (USD/t oz.) : 1474 (+00.50)

Nymex Crude (F) : 112.7 (-00.06)

INR / 1 USD : 44.04

Technical Outlook : Weekend witnesses some profit booking...

Market spent the day trying to get bearish but not really succeeding too much. The decline that we saw on Friday was more owing to lack of buying rather than any aggressive selling. Early during the day we did see a bout of position unloading by longs particularly in the small and mid cap stocks. The lull in the afternoon was when people stopped selling. A minor intraday rally ensued that brought levels up again to attract fresh round of selling. But we feel the selling had no teeth to it and hence may not repeat into the next week.

The chart featured today is Bank Nifty 60 minutes. The rally seems to have stopped short at the gap area. This is never a good sign as it shows that the bulls could only muster enough strength to bring it to the resistance levels. Thus one should be on the watch in the banking stocks in the coming week. It will be make or break time for them. If bullish, they need to start moving higher and cross the gap area resistance shown in the chart. If not, they will remain under the weather and seek to participate during market declines during the week.

The small and mid cap futures have not really lost much ground. This shows that the buyers are still in control in these elements. Not difficult to gauge that considering that most of them are of price levels where retail traders can take delivery and not be pressured into selling out in futures. So expect them to perform again this week in case the market begins to look again.

3 week run towards the highs and the index has met with resistance. So ideally (or rationally speaking) we should be looking for declines here and not advances. But then, hardly any pending positions as evidenced by the trading of last week. So we have a tradeoff situation and the expected may not really happen. Hence sheath the logic and go with the flow, is the advice for the week. Like in the last week, the area to concentrate would continue to be the small and mid caps. With two holidays during the week, we cannot see operators getting active in large caps. Hence they may try to drive up mid caps where they are in greater control.

STRATEGY FOR THE DAY: Avoid index trading unless there is some good participation from leader stocks and you see volumes on the downside. Better would be to check out the Table levels and look to buy at the support zones given. Do take care to bail out of positions near the resitsance levels too. Of course a few of them will move beyond the lower support or higher resistance and get into a trend. But these have to be taken on a case by case basis. Check out mid and small cap futures stocks that underwent some reaction on Friday and see if they are meeting demand again. Check out their support levels in the Table (or using Dyna Levels on our site) and plan your trades. Momentum investing to continue.

Stocks to buy if market is strong


This stock has seen good momentum gain throughout the week. We witnessed on Friday the stock being one of the resilient ones in the falling market. It has closed above the horizontal resistance line with good volumes.RSI is indicating strength in the counter for more upside potential. Bulls have shown active buying in this counter. Look to Buy this counter.




Buy above 700

5 points

708 / 712

Or dips to 690

5 points

697 / 702


This stock was seen in a downtrend since a couple of months, but it bottomed out around 270 levels where we witnessed some value buying happening. On the daily charts the stock has broken the descending trend line resistance with good volumes on the daily charts. Bulls have increased their buying power in the stock which can be confirmed by the strength RSI is showing on the charts. Look to BUY




Buy above 383

5 points

390 / 395 /400

Stocks to sell if market is weak


This stock has not been able to hold onto to its gains from the bottom. On Friday session when market showed some weakness this pharmacy stock which is usually stable showed good selling pressure on the intraday basis.




Sell below 194

3 points

190 / 188

Or rally to 197

3 points

193 / 190


Buy Nifty in the region of 5835-5815 with stop below 5800 for rise to 5910.


Buy Core Projects above 310 stop below 307 target 315

Sell Bharat Forge below 359 stop above 363 target 353

Stocks in Action for the day: Sesa Goa, Hindustan Zinc, SpiceJet, Sun Pharma, Alembic, Rel Infra

Sesa Goa’s production of iron ore was 21 per cent lower at 5.49 mijilon tonnes in Q4 as compared to corresponding quarter due to the state-wide export ban in Karnataka since end July 2010. Production for the full year was lower at 18.80 million tonnes as compared to 21.08 million tonnes.

Hindustan Zinc’s mined metal production was at 231,000 tonnes in Q4 and 840,000 tonnes for the full year, 19% and 9% higher than the corresponding prior year periods. Refined zinc production was 29% higher at 194,000 tonnes in Q4, and 23% higher at 712,000 tonnes for the year.

Koutons Retail moved higher after IFCI acquired 5.89 per cent stake in the company by invoking the shares pledged by promoters.

ARSS Infrastructure Projects has bagged work order from Madhya Pradesh Road Development Corporation for construction of road from Damoh - Bhatiagarh - Hirapur on BOT basis. The total length of the road is about 69.60 kms.

Garware Offshore Services' anchor handling tug cum supply vessel, M.V. Mahananda, has been awarded 3-year contract by an exploration & production company. The vessel will be deployed on the west coast of India. The value of the contract will be approx Rs 13.10 crores per annum.

KEC International’s has bagged Rs 31 crore order from Water Resource Department of Madhya Pradesh state government. The project comprises renovation, repair and remodeling of canal under Urmil Tank project in the district of Chattrapur.

The US drug regulator has opposed American firm Mylan’s request to strip Ranbaxy Laboratories of its six month exclusive rights to sell a low-priced version of the world’s best-selling drug Lipitor in the US.

State-owned Rashtriya Chemicals and Fertilisers (RCF), Coal India and gas distributor GAIL will together spend Rs 7500 crore to build a coal gasification facility in Orissa to meet the rising demand for power by fertiliser and power generating companies. RCF and Coal India will own a majority stake in the special venture that will build the facility once the government approvals are in place.

Infosys Technologies and the Andhra Pradesh government have locked horns over the company’s special economic zone near Hyderabad. While the government says the firm has not made desired progress on land utilization as per the allotment agreement, Infosys points out the government hasn’t kept all the promises and there have been delays in receiving approvals.

Syndicate Bank one of Wockhardt’s foreign currency convertible bondholders, has offered an out-of-court settlement with the pharma company which has been taken to court by multiple creditors. The bank has told the company that it is willing to accept Wockhardt’s shares equivalent to the outstanding bond amount.

Ex-dividend Clariant Chemical: Ex Dividend by Rs 20/sh Alfa Laval: Ex Dividend by Rs 30/sh

Cairn India open offer of 38.4 crore shares at Rs 355/share opens today

Punj Lloyd’s FCCB holders convert bonds into equity worth USD 62.55 million

Puneet Goneka sells 1.5% stake in DB Realty between 17th February-30th March

Gujarat NRE Coke board approves allotment of 1.74 crore shares towards conversion of FCCBs at Rs 44.64/share ((CMP: Rs 53.60))

ED files chargesheet in 2G Trial Court, ED ChargeSheet names Uninor for FEMA violations

Reliance Infrastructure share buyback to start April 11 versus April 5 planned earlier

Stocks in F&O ban: Deccan Chronicle, Kingfisher, Suzlon

Tata Steel board meet on April 11 to consider a proposal on restructuring of Centennial Steel co (WOS)

Vikash Metal board meet on April 12 to allot GDR & underlying equity shares

Areva T&D board meet today to consider demerger of the distribution business from the company

Infinite Computer Solutions board meet on Buyback of shares

Results today: Essar Oil,Tulysan NEC, Raj Television

Alembic goes ex-scheme of arrangement today

Divestment Secretary says disinvestment target of Rs 40,000 crore extremely realistic

Sun Pharma press meet today, likely to sign a strategic marketing pact with Merck

Merck close to signing a strategic marketing partnership with Sun Pharma for worth Rs 60,000 crore – Mint

SAIL plans to invest Rs 3000 crore in its proposed joint venture with Kobe Steel of Japan to revive its Jagdishpur unit – DNA

SpiceJet set to hike fares as fuel costs threaten the carrier’s weak margins – ET

Puravankara raises Rs 150 crore through an issue of 16% non-convertible debentures from Kotak Mahindra Prime land NBFC of Kotak Bank (ET)

Parsvnath Developers set to sell stake in two group housing projects to private equity firms seeks to raise Rs 200 crore

NMDC to spend Rs 2400 crore to acquire coal & iron ore assets overseas and looks to finalize the deal by June - BS


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