Monday, August 22, 2011

Stocks in action for the day: Mphasis, Infosys, SBI, Aurobindo, Rcom.

Market Outlook: Indian markets are expected to open on a flat note in the opening trades and trade in the range manner. More volatility seen due to uncertainty in global markets while Asian markets trading firm; Hang Seng, Nikkei up. On the over all basis we remain cautious with a support seen near 4800 if broken it can test 4742 on the worst scenario.

Results Today: Allied Digital and Aqua logistics.

Global events to watch for:

Þ National Activity Index.

Global indices Update @ 8:

Dow Jones : 10817 (-172.9)

NASDAQ : 2341 (-38.59)

Nikkei 225 : 8735 (+16.33)

Hang seng : 19460 (+115.4)

SGX CNX Nifty : 4854 (+04.00)

Gold (USD/t oz.) : 1835.4 (+13.40)

Nymex Crude (F) : 80.85 (-01.53)

INR / 1 USD : 45.61

OUTLOOK: Bears maintain the pressure...

For yet another week the market moved lower and closed near the lows. That does not endear itself to anyone, particularly, those who have been waiting to buy this market. In the last Monday letter we had mentioned about Gold market suggesting that there is some pain still left in the equity markets and that came thru with a vengeance as Gold prices sped at one of their fastest pace seen in recent times as panic overtook the global markets. Unfortunately the week closed on that note and hence we are still forced to consider further declines only as that is what all evidence is still pointing towards.

Fear levels continue to remain high. The inability of the market to find a range will ensure that the volatility levels will continue to remain high. The last week fo current expiry begins today. Typically IVs spike up in the last week and that will just add to the woes. PCR has slipped once again to 0.94 and that puts us in bearish territory once again. Calls have been shorted aggressively and that puts the lid on the market for now. Puts at 4600 appear to have been accumulated and are suggesting that there could be a move towards that zone as well.

Break of 4800 should lead to further declines. Next support is not visible until 4675. This is a good distance away. Oscillator set up is bearish as all of them are into a decline yet and no evidence of divergence is available yet. ADX line is on the rise as well. So, at best, an oversold bounce could occur- nothing more than that. Weekly pivot is placed at 4975 and that is the level to regain and exceed if any bounce has to succeed.

STRATEGY FOR THE DAY: Since the chances for either side appear to be about equal, we should wait for some kind of signal from the market about its intent before we proceed with the trades for the day. Of course, we should keep our long and short picks ready and these are provided in the letter and shall also be sent you thru the SMS service (if you are subscribed to it). Alternately, you could also go to our website and take a look at the Dyna Level tool available Free to you for capturing some trading points on different stocks that you may fancy.

Stocks to sell if market is weak:

JINDAL POLYFILMS With market showing no respite the stocks are witnessing a sharp sell off last week. This counter too attempted a revival only to meet some resistance and reverse the trend. The negative DI lines crossover suggest the increase in selling pressure alerting opportunity to go short. The closing below the support of 220 invites us to explore selling opportunities.




Sell below 217

2 points

214 / 212 / 211

Or Rise near 220-221

2 points

218 / 216 / 215

PHOENIX MILLS The support could not hold on to the sustained bearish trend as the prices closed well below the support region on the daily charts indicate the vice like grip of the bears. The momentum continues to weaken indicating that there is room for more declines. Overall setup suggests that one can go short.




Sell below 206

2 points

203 / 201 / 200

Or rally near 209

2 points

206 / 204 / 203

Stocks to buy if market is strong:

TIME TECHNOPLAST After some sideways move the prices found some value support around 64 levels and have been steadily moving higher. Sharp rise in volumes on Friday suggest some upmove in store for this counter today. With RSI inching higher steadily the positive momentum in this counter invites buying participation.Buy




Buy above 70

1 point

72 / 73

Or dips near 68

1 point

70 / 71


Sell Nifty below 4850 with stop at 4880 for a fall to 4785-4760-4715.




Stocks in action for the day: Mphasis, Infosys, SBI, Aurobindo, Rcom.

Vedanta-Cairn Deal - Vedanta Says: Got Formal Notification Fm GoI On Conditional Nod For Deal Size Of Bridge To Eq Facility Reduced By $730 m To $270 m

Mphasis in Focus HP stock fell 20% in US trading after it announced PC biz spinoff and discontinuing of its WebOS products. HP reduced its full year revenue forecast by 9% and profits by 16%

CBI raids Ramky, Aurobindo, Navbharat offices in connection with the case of alleged financial misdeeds and illegal amassment of wealth by Kadapa MP YS Jagan Mohan Reddy

Alert: HDFC Trustee funds buy 5% in Aurobindo

Infosys to embrace change, may go in for acquisitions: KV Kamath – ET

Infy needs to correct course, look beyond BFSI: Kamath – BS

RCom puts tower unit on the block for $5 bn; has hired UBS to sell its 95-percent stake in Reliance Infratel

Govt won’t Divest PSU Stake Till Market Looks Up

Govt Examining Capital Raising Proposal of SBI

Parliamentary panel asks coal ministry to expedite Coal India’s acquisitions abroad

RIL to close USD 7.2 Bn BP deal this month

M&M overtakes Tatas as the most valued firm

GOI to announce Manufacturing Policy Soon

Centre to table nuclear regulator bill soon

Nalco seeks Expression of Interest for its Angul Unit located in Aluminium Park in Orrisa

Elder Pharma in plans to launch 12 New product in FY12

Corporation Bank seeks Rs 300 Cr Loan from Govt

Rel Infra arm seeks Rs 700 Cr relief for two key projects

Wipo Consumer Eyes Infra Projects

Assocham: Raise Cap requirement for MFI's to Rs 25 lks from current Rs 5 lks

Mahanadi Coalfields, an arm of Coal India Ltd, plans to set up a 1,600-Mw power plant in Orissa with an investment of Rs 9,000 cr

TCS leads race to acquire Lufthansa's IT subsidiary; IBM also in the fray – ET

Govt to examine books first, before SBI rights issue – ET

TPG in talks to acquire stake in Spicejet – ET

NHAI to launch tax free bonds by September – ET

VSNL Land: DoT to give Rs 20 mn loan for consulting firm to SPV – ET

Nalco gets mining lease of Utkal E-Coal block – ET

Cipla, Dr Reddy's under DCGI scanner for selling banned drugs – ET

Ranbaxy Laboratories may sell Lipitor rights if FDA delays nod – ET

Next edition of FDI document on Sept 30: DIPP – PTI

Govt readies stake sale process for Nalco, Hind Copper, SAIL – HBL

Amara Raja set for OV two-wheeler market foray – BS

Omnitech eyes IT acquisition in Europe – BS

Coal India seeks allies to unlock 1.6 bn tonne; Plans to reopen 18 mines – DNA Money

Ex Dividend: Castrol India Interim dividend 7/sh, Chambal fertilizers 1.9/sh

F&O Ban: ABG Shipyard, Gitanjali Gems, KS oils


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