Thursday, August 4, 2011

Whats wrong with the world economy

Whats wrong with the world economy: After going through all the possible reasons I found that the potential economic engines besides the United States, Europe and Japan are stagnating. Emerging markets, from China, Indonesia to Brazil, are in deep trouble. Undoubtedly, it is only the US economy, which accounts for about a third of world output, which is dragging the world economic growth.

With the current economic scenario top leading ratings agencies have warned these countries to reduce its net debt-to-GDP ratio quickly or facing losing its coveted AAA debt rating.

At this point the question arises.....Is the global economy out of the woods? Two years after near-meltdown, with the U.S. looking sluggish, equity markets unsteady and Europeans combating a debt crisis.

US = 99% to GDP

Japan = 229% to GDP

India = 68% to GDP

Brizil = 65% tp GDP

China = 17% Tp GDP

Looking at the data provided by the IMF we believe there is a significant risk of a double-dip downturn in the United States as well as in Japan and many European countries which will slowdown the world engine drivers. The global scene is so dismal that the World Economic Outlook thinks growth in the advanced countries in 2011 and 2012 will be lower than it was in 2010.

A brief on Debt-to-GDP ratio: In economics, the debt-to-GDP ratio is one of the key indicators of the health of an economy. It is the amount of national debt of a country as a percentage of its Gross Domestic Product (GDP). A low debt-to-GDP ratio indicates an economy that produces a large number of goods and services and probably profits that are high enough to pay back debts. In general terms Debt-to-GDP measures the financial leverage of an economy. Governments aim for low debt-to-GDP ratios and can stand-up to the risks involved by increasing debt as their economies have a higher GDP and profit margin.

List of high debt leveraged economies

Country in % of GDP

2011

2012E

2013E

2014E

2015E

2016E

Japan

229.08

233.37

238.04

242.392

246.654

250.475

Saint Kitts and Nevis

191.94

189.96

187.888

186.701

186.247

186.681

Greece

152.32

157.65

156.951

152.52

149.386

145.469

Jamaica

137.13

129.55

118.754

107.469

87.461

80.487

Eritrea

134.71

128.03

125.272

122.311

125.711

125.221

Lebanon

133.82

134.17

136.6

138.656

140.756

142.561

Italy

120.25

119.98

119.723

119.265

118.725

117.976

Barbados

114.24

114.24

114.909

115.656

115.779

115.706

Ireland

114.07

121.51

125.765

124.959

123.478

121.468

Grenada

110.6

104.66

100.159

95.227

88.931

82.743

Iceland

103.21

97.066

92.067

85.342

80.912

73.759

United States

99.519

102.9

105.597

107.534

109.393

111.911

Belgium

97.337

97.401

97.753

98.194

98.343

98.799

Singapore

93.651

91.262

88.45

86.136

83.852

82.872

Portugal

90.554

94.619

97.512

100.819

103.738

106.533

Antigua and Barbuda

90.327

87.703

83.372

76.082

70.981

64.089

Sao Tome and Principe

89.02

90.528

91.439

91.448

66.382

62.435

Guinea

88.691

87.271

89.773

94.85

94.743

95.564

France

87.624

89.658

90.303

89.773

88.533

86.682

St. Vincent and the Grenadines

87.142

85.908

82.957

78.752

74.159

69.401

Cape Verde

85.944

89.425

87.15

81.716

75.568

70.754

Canada

84.197

83.082

81.038

78.461

75.595

72.62

Dominica

83.426

79.6

75.491

71.501

67.755

64.166

United Kingdom

83.033

86.493

87.44

86.544

84.392

81.339

European Union

81.762

82.783

82.815

82.06

80.898

79.449

Seychelles

80.275

74.899

66.42

58.845

53.528

47.156

Germany

80.11

79.435

77.863

75.811

73.759

71.872

Belize

79.723

78.21

77.154

76.305

75.556

75.086

St. Lucia

79.623

79.941

80.769

81.053

81.101

81.15

Nicaragua

79.569

75.117

70.046

65.374

60.204

55.661

Hungary

76.631

76.86

77.12

76.795

76.008

75.276

Egypt

74.874

73.736

70.884

67.653

64.257

60.272

Israel

72.98

69.961

67.495

64.791

62.566

60.56

Zimbabwe

70.503

66.933

64.855

63.373

61.449

52.251

Austria

70.496

70.747

70.912

70.502

70.139

69.817

India

68.201

67.678

65.277

63.327

61.579

59.887

Maldives

67.577

75.224

81.164

90.242

99.592

108.951

Malta

66.67

66.706

66.184

65.375

64.618

63.863

Kyrgyzstan

65.951

68.197

69.184

67.573

66.975

66.268

Brazil

65.712

64.984

63.826

62.067

60.325

58.624

Netherlands

65.647

66.478

66.653

66.467

65.743

64.371

Spain

63.922

67.069

69.855

72.1

74.063

75.944

Sudan

63.382

61.733

59.81

57.965

56.026

50.728

Cyprus

63.362

63.947

64.18

63.664

62.761

62.161

Guyana

62.327

61.762

62.023

62.1

61.171

60.487

Jordan

61.95

62.096

61.938

61.739

61.31

60.539

Albania

59.892

60.401

60.647

60.683

60.909

61.082

Fiji

58.882

58.772

58.455

57.667

56.632

54.134

Lao People's Democratic Republic

57.607

54.93

53.042

51.153

49.037

45.831

Djibouti

57.167

55.441

53.862

52.218

50.627

49.303

Poland

56.567

57.267

57.504

57.352

56.536

55.537

The Gambia

55.535

53.599

50.829

48.268

45.056

42.099

Malaysia

55.073

55.83

56.469

56.887

57.167

57.32

Norway

54.257

54.257

54.257

54.257

54.257

54.257

Pakistan

54.114

50.939

49.503

47.777

44.491

41.163

Morocco

52.804

53.83

53.992

53.796

53.049

51.686

Uruguay

52.791

50.175

47.577

45.058

42.03

39.733

Switzerland

52.665

51.221

49.686

48.324

46.999

45.711

Kenya

52.305

50.913

49.597

48.945

48.331

47.006

Vietnam

51.514

51.021

50.144

49.081

47.888

46.7

Mauritius

51.424

52.101

50.407

48.883

47.165

45.178

Mauritania

51.266

49.423

49.167

50.08

49.15

46.205

Finland

50.793

52.672

54.984

57.278

59.238

61.098

The Bahamas

50.701

53.417

55.202

56.376

57.389

57.221

El Salvador

50.607

50.402

49.209

47.888

46.616

45.434

Sierra Leone

49.871

42.996

42.711

42.805

43.634

43.608

Trinidad and Tobago

49.257

49.795

50.237

51.632

53.71

56.327

Comoros

47.897

43.861

39.972

36.023

32.241

28.929

Tanzania

47.508

48.928

49.619

49.584

49.012

48.136

Philippines

46.975

45.96

44.311

42.813

41.393

40.066

Burundi

46.204

39.8

35.655

33.531

30.651

39.777

Myanmar

45.996

47.85

48.754

49.217

44.682

44.188

Armenia

45.623

40.007

40.115

33.586

34.137

28.692

Denmark

45.585

46.515

46.251

45.075

42.95

40.179

Guinea-Bissau

45.516

43.297

40.841

37.377

34.475

33.601

Slovak Republic

45.054

46.247

46.514

46.753

46.23

45.703

Croatia

44.121

47.55

50.199

52.422

54.254

55.688

Thailand

43.676

43.959

43.926

43.76

43.476

42.994

Lithuania

43.519

45.449

47.698

49.524

50.967

52.105

Montenegro

43.073

42.203

41.094

39.931

38.562

37.708

Tunisia

42.798

42.778

41.585

39.988

37.812

35.517

Ukraine

42.561

43.495

41.527

39.461

34.969

30.693

Latvia

42.477

41.007

39.809

38.06

36.778

36.192

Lesotho

42.395

46.149

46.933

46.599

44.717

46.67

Slovenia

42.323

44.947

46.715

48.02

49.311

50.607

Mexico

42.309

42.137

41.992

41.886

41.556

41.366

Ghana

42.269

42.703

42.959

42.118

41.914

42.804

Yemen

42.037

44.316

45.908

47.169

47.921

47.386

Costa Rica

41.964

42.83

43.772

44.675

45.456

46.16

Georgia

41.694

41.783

40.109

38.76

38.641

37.981

Czech Republic

41.652

43.356

44.512

45.553

46.546

47.573

Bosnia and Herzegovina

41.383

41.411

38.202

33.063

27.646

23.099

Ethiopia

41.369

40.658

39.566

38.329

36.742

34.295

Argentina

40.714

36.65

35.776

35.323

34.269

31.427

Serbia

40.459

39.808

37.817

35.254

32.716

30.169

Senegal

40.226

41.771

42.819

43.545

43.724

44.16

Venezuela

40.175

42.135

43.834

45.533

47.231

48.924

South Africa

39.551

41.724

42.792

42.515

41.075

37.896

Turkey

39.406

37.571

36.432

35.439

34.681

33.961

Iraq

38.868

33.645

28.988

26.591

25.165

20.456

Malawi

38.785

36.984

35.149

33.329

31.592

29.688

Panama

38.331

35.542

33.192

30.912

28.778

26.07

Madagascar

38.082

37.992

38.259

38.611

39.297

39.664

Taiwan

37.948

36.842

35.08

33.43

31.875

30.357

Romania

37.803

37.711

37.462

36.818

35.96

35.005

Sweden

37.296

34.891

32.21

29.324

26.153

22.807

Tajikistan

36.461

37.239

37.961

37.915

37.626

36.184

Colombia

36.308

35.407

33.966

32.687

31.47

29.854

Mozambique

36.216

40.088

43.317

46.118

48.616

49.453

New Zealand

35.781

36.372

36.498

36.146

33.746

31.676

Bolivia

34.273

32.806

32.263

31.893

28.498

26.092

Democratic Republic of Congo

34.158

39.169

39.348

40.926

40.455

40.058

Nepal

33.144

32.696

32.55

32.457

32.359

32.335

Liberia

31.032

30.23

32.166

36.251

37.851

42.155

Moldova

30.39

32.421

31.886

29.993

27.737

25.358

Cambodia

30.377

30.084

29.047

29.079

28.201

27.221

Chad

30.27

26.416

24.106

21.928

19.837

18.565

Uganda

30.262

30.11

29.251

28.491

28.018

29.34

Benin

29.99

28.976

27.53

26.132

24.748

23.993

Central African Republic

29.891

26.499

23.915

22.15

19.804

17.546

Burkina Faso

29.283

30.675

31.685

32.55

33.258

34.118

Korea

28.755

26.857

25.092

23.29

21.493

19.803

Mali

27.301

25.039

22.776

23.477

24.212

24.895

Republic of Macedonia

26.801

27.38

27.108

26.382

26.144

25.979

Honduras

26.455

26.389

26.974

27.299

27.12

27.2

Zambia

26.251

29.359

30.158

30.193

29.329

28.479

Angola

25.979

22.221

22.01

21.877

21.836

21.478

Dominican Republic

25.459

25.353

24.103

22.881

21.741

20.811

Indonesia

25.42

24.048

22.762

21.758

21.055

19.912

Belarus

25.303

27.058

29.479

29.842

31.763

32.741

Guatemala

25.118

26.054

26.924

27.894

28.869

29.772

Swaziland

24.979

29.295

31.889

33.191

34.238

34.406

Bahrain

24.772

22.722

23.606

25.891

29.501

32.859

Namibia

24.573

27.803

33.172

36.796

39.584

43.321

Togo

24.342

23.322

22.192

21.08

20.205

19.541

Syria

24.318

21.631

20.188

19.281

18.397

17.702

Australia

24.099

24.843

23.311

23.593

21.771

20.648

Rwanda

23.537

23.498

22.026

20.156

18.289

16.673

Solomon Islands

23.357

20.928

19.466

17.484

15.689

14.08

Peru

22.468

20.706

19.284

18.111

17.045

16.084

Ecuador

20.367

19.812

19.322

18.253

17.686

17.382

Suriname

20.042

18.551

18.56

17.129

15.547

13.772

Bulgaria

19.724

19.955

19.748

18.814

17.263

15.224

Niger

18.493

18.43

19.944

21.192

22.624

23.098

Luxembourg

17.899

19.497

21.167

22.382

23.38

24.107

China

17.089

16.268

15.004

13.387

10.85

9.721

Gabon

16.473

14.657

14.371

14.126

13.66

13.134

United Arab Emirates

16.381

14.489

13.734

13.047

12.194

11.39

Nigeria

16.216

18.519

21.1

18.635

16.673

14.759

Turkmenistan

16.181

21.304

19.069

16.65

12.157

7.006

Botswana

16.013

14.109

12.42

10.663

9.101

7.863

Cameroon

14.326

14.081

13.17

13.202

13.378

13.705

Qatar

13.348

12.763

12.688

12.52

12.312

12.19

Congo

12.98

12.429

12.998

13.37

13.604

13.667

Paraguay

12.801

12.333

12.001

11.665

11.139

10.67

Kazakhstan

12.589

14.056

15.282

16.245

17.368

18.11

Haiti

12.28

16.781

20.34

23.512

26.281

29.11

Uzbekistan

11.282

12.802

14.435

16.083

17.786

19.44

Chile

10.92

10.217

9.645

9.05

8.476

7.955

Azerbaijan

10.737

11.113

11.536

11.638

11.687

11.83

Iran

9.474

8.362

7.458

6.611

5.86

5.175

Russia

8.548

8.807

9.461

11.262

13.45

15.87

Equatorial Guinea

8.539

10.285

8.893

7.03

4.679

2.472

Saudi Arabia

8.309

7.13

6.225

5.295

4.442

3.718

Kuwait

7.959

7.306

7.005

6.5

5.974

5.469

Estonia

6.316

6.018

5.722

5.434

5.162

4.881

Hong Kong

4.528

4.173

3.718

3.523

3.339

3.154

Oman

4.066

3.238

2.493

1.812

1.161

5.151

Source: International Monetary Fund (IMF), World Economic Outlook Database of April 2011, for countries:


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