Whats wrong with the world economy: After going through all the possible reasons I found that the potential economic engines besides the United States, Europe and Japan are stagnating. Emerging markets, from China, Indonesia to Brazil, are in deep trouble. Undoubtedly, it is only the US economy, which accounts for about a third of world output, which is dragging the world economic growth.
With the current economic scenario top leading ratings agencies have warned these countries to reduce its net debt-to-GDP ratio quickly or facing losing its coveted AAA debt rating.
At this point the question arises.....Is the global economy out of the woods? Two years after near-meltdown, with the U.S. looking sluggish, equity markets unsteady and Europeans combating a debt crisis.
US = 99% to GDP
Japan = 229% to GDP
India = 68% to GDP
Brizil = 65% tp GDP
China = 17% Tp GDP
Looking at the data provided by the IMF we believe there is a significant risk of a double-dip downturn in the United States as well as in Japan and many European countries which will slowdown the world engine drivers. The global scene is so dismal that the World Economic Outlook thinks growth in the advanced countries in 2011 and 2012 will be lower than it was in 2010.
A brief on Debt-to-GDP ratio: In economics, the debt-to-GDP ratio is one of the key indicators of the health of an economy. It is the amount of national debt of a country as a percentage of its Gross Domestic Product (GDP). A low debt-to-GDP ratio indicates an economy that produces a large number of goods and services and probably profits that are high enough to pay back debts. In general terms Debt-to-GDP measures the financial leverage of an economy. Governments aim for low debt-to-GDP ratios and can stand-up to the risks involved by increasing debt as their economies have a higher GDP and profit margin.
List of high debt leveraged economies
Country in % of GDP | 2011 | 2012E | 2013E | 2014E | 2015E | 2016E |
Japan | 229.08 | 233.37 | 238.04 | 242.392 | 246.654 | 250.475 |
Saint Kitts and Nevis | 191.94 | 189.96 | 187.888 | 186.701 | 186.247 | 186.681 |
Greece | 152.32 | 157.65 | 156.951 | 152.52 | 149.386 | 145.469 |
Jamaica | 137.13 | 129.55 | 118.754 | 107.469 | 87.461 | 80.487 |
Eritrea | 134.71 | 128.03 | 125.272 | 122.311 | 125.711 | 125.221 |
Lebanon | 133.82 | 134.17 | 136.6 | 138.656 | 140.756 | 142.561 |
Italy | 120.25 | 119.98 | 119.723 | 119.265 | 118.725 | 117.976 |
Barbados | 114.24 | 114.24 | 114.909 | 115.656 | 115.779 | 115.706 |
Ireland | 114.07 | 121.51 | 125.765 | 124.959 | 123.478 | 121.468 |
Grenada | 110.6 | 104.66 | 100.159 | 95.227 | 88.931 | 82.743 |
Iceland | 103.21 | 97.066 | 92.067 | 85.342 | 80.912 | 73.759 |
United States | 99.519 | 102.9 | 105.597 | 107.534 | 109.393 | 111.911 |
Belgium | 97.337 | 97.401 | 97.753 | 98.194 | 98.343 | 98.799 |
Singapore | 93.651 | 91.262 | 88.45 | 86.136 | 83.852 | 82.872 |
Portugal | 90.554 | 94.619 | 97.512 | 100.819 | 103.738 | 106.533 |
Antigua and Barbuda | 90.327 | 87.703 | 83.372 | 76.082 | 70.981 | 64.089 |
Sao Tome and Principe | 89.02 | 90.528 | 91.439 | 91.448 | 66.382 | 62.435 |
Guinea | 88.691 | 87.271 | 89.773 | 94.85 | 94.743 | 95.564 |
France | 87.624 | 89.658 | 90.303 | 89.773 | 88.533 | 86.682 |
St. Vincent and the Grenadines | 87.142 | 85.908 | 82.957 | 78.752 | 74.159 | 69.401 |
Cape Verde | 85.944 | 89.425 | 87.15 | 81.716 | 75.568 | 70.754 |
Canada | 84.197 | 83.082 | 81.038 | 78.461 | 75.595 | 72.62 |
Dominica | 83.426 | 79.6 | 75.491 | 71.501 | 67.755 | 64.166 |
United Kingdom | 83.033 | 86.493 | 87.44 | 86.544 | 84.392 | 81.339 |
European Union | 81.762 | 82.783 | 82.815 | 82.06 | 80.898 | 79.449 |
Seychelles | 80.275 | 74.899 | 66.42 | 58.845 | 53.528 | 47.156 |
Germany | 80.11 | 79.435 | 77.863 | 75.811 | 73.759 | 71.872 |
Belize | 79.723 | 78.21 | 77.154 | 76.305 | 75.556 | 75.086 |
St. Lucia | 79.623 | 79.941 | 80.769 | 81.053 | 81.101 | 81.15 |
Nicaragua | 79.569 | 75.117 | 70.046 | 65.374 | 60.204 | 55.661 |
Hungary | 76.631 | 76.86 | 77.12 | 76.795 | 76.008 | 75.276 |
Egypt | 74.874 | 73.736 | 70.884 | 67.653 | 64.257 | 60.272 |
Israel | 72.98 | 69.961 | 67.495 | 64.791 | 62.566 | 60.56 |
Zimbabwe | 70.503 | 66.933 | 64.855 | 63.373 | 61.449 | 52.251 |
Austria | 70.496 | 70.747 | 70.912 | 70.502 | 70.139 | 69.817 |
India | 68.201 | 67.678 | 65.277 | 63.327 | 61.579 | 59.887 |
Maldives | 67.577 | 75.224 | 81.164 | 90.242 | 99.592 | 108.951 |
Malta | 66.67 | 66.706 | 66.184 | 65.375 | 64.618 | 63.863 |
Kyrgyzstan | 65.951 | 68.197 | 69.184 | 67.573 | 66.975 | 66.268 |
Brazil | 65.712 | 64.984 | 63.826 | 62.067 | 60.325 | 58.624 |
Netherlands | 65.647 | 66.478 | 66.653 | 66.467 | 65.743 | 64.371 |
Spain | 63.922 | 67.069 | 69.855 | 72.1 | 74.063 | 75.944 |
Sudan | 63.382 | 61.733 | 59.81 | 57.965 | 56.026 | 50.728 |
Cyprus | 63.362 | 63.947 | 64.18 | 63.664 | 62.761 | 62.161 |
Guyana | 62.327 | 61.762 | 62.023 | 62.1 | 61.171 | 60.487 |
Jordan | 61.95 | 62.096 | 61.938 | 61.739 | 61.31 | 60.539 |
Albania | 59.892 | 60.401 | 60.647 | 60.683 | 60.909 | 61.082 |
Fiji | 58.882 | 58.772 | 58.455 | 57.667 | 56.632 | 54.134 |
Lao People's Democratic Republic | 57.607 | 54.93 | 53.042 | 51.153 | 49.037 | 45.831 |
Djibouti | 57.167 | 55.441 | 53.862 | 52.218 | 50.627 | 49.303 |
Poland | 56.567 | 57.267 | 57.504 | 57.352 | 56.536 | 55.537 |
The Gambia | 55.535 | 53.599 | 50.829 | 48.268 | 45.056 | 42.099 |
Malaysia | 55.073 | 55.83 | 56.469 | 56.887 | 57.167 | 57.32 |
Norway | 54.257 | 54.257 | 54.257 | 54.257 | 54.257 | 54.257 |
Pakistan | 54.114 | 50.939 | 49.503 | 47.777 | 44.491 | 41.163 |
Morocco | 52.804 | 53.83 | 53.992 | 53.796 | 53.049 | 51.686 |
Uruguay | 52.791 | 50.175 | 47.577 | 45.058 | 42.03 | 39.733 |
Switzerland | 52.665 | 51.221 | 49.686 | 48.324 | 46.999 | 45.711 |
Kenya | 52.305 | 50.913 | 49.597 | 48.945 | 48.331 | 47.006 |
Vietnam | 51.514 | 51.021 | 50.144 | 49.081 | 47.888 | 46.7 |
Mauritius | 51.424 | 52.101 | 50.407 | 48.883 | 47.165 | 45.178 |
Mauritania | 51.266 | 49.423 | 49.167 | 50.08 | 49.15 | 46.205 |
Finland | 50.793 | 52.672 | 54.984 | 57.278 | 59.238 | 61.098 |
The Bahamas | 50.701 | 53.417 | 55.202 | 56.376 | 57.389 | 57.221 |
El Salvador | 50.607 | 50.402 | 49.209 | 47.888 | 46.616 | 45.434 |
Sierra Leone | 49.871 | 42.996 | 42.711 | 42.805 | 43.634 | 43.608 |
Trinidad and Tobago | 49.257 | 49.795 | 50.237 | 51.632 | 53.71 | 56.327 |
Comoros | 47.897 | 43.861 | 39.972 | 36.023 | 32.241 | 28.929 |
Tanzania | 47.508 | 48.928 | 49.619 | 49.584 | 49.012 | 48.136 |
Philippines | 46.975 | 45.96 | 44.311 | 42.813 | 41.393 | 40.066 |
Burundi | 46.204 | 39.8 | 35.655 | 33.531 | 30.651 | 39.777 |
Myanmar | 45.996 | 47.85 | 48.754 | 49.217 | 44.682 | 44.188 |
Armenia | 45.623 | 40.007 | 40.115 | 33.586 | 34.137 | 28.692 |
Denmark | 45.585 | 46.515 | 46.251 | 45.075 | 42.95 | 40.179 |
Guinea-Bissau | 45.516 | 43.297 | 40.841 | 37.377 | 34.475 | 33.601 |
Slovak Republic | 45.054 | 46.247 | 46.514 | 46.753 | 46.23 | 45.703 |
Croatia | 44.121 | 47.55 | 50.199 | 52.422 | 54.254 | 55.688 |
Thailand | 43.676 | 43.959 | 43.926 | 43.76 | 43.476 | 42.994 |
Lithuania | 43.519 | 45.449 | 47.698 | 49.524 | 50.967 | 52.105 |
Montenegro | 43.073 | 42.203 | 41.094 | 39.931 | 38.562 | 37.708 |
Tunisia | 42.798 | 42.778 | 41.585 | 39.988 | 37.812 | 35.517 |
Ukraine | 42.561 | 43.495 | 41.527 | 39.461 | 34.969 | 30.693 |
Latvia | 42.477 | 41.007 | 39.809 | 38.06 | 36.778 | 36.192 |
Lesotho | 42.395 | 46.149 | 46.933 | 46.599 | 44.717 | 46.67 |
Slovenia | 42.323 | 44.947 | 46.715 | 48.02 | 49.311 | 50.607 |
Mexico | 42.309 | 42.137 | 41.992 | 41.886 | 41.556 | 41.366 |
Ghana | 42.269 | 42.703 | 42.959 | 42.118 | 41.914 | 42.804 |
Yemen | 42.037 | 44.316 | 45.908 | 47.169 | 47.921 | 47.386 |
Costa Rica | 41.964 | 42.83 | 43.772 | 44.675 | 45.456 | 46.16 |
Georgia | 41.694 | 41.783 | 40.109 | 38.76 | 38.641 | 37.981 |
Czech Republic | 41.652 | 43.356 | 44.512 | 45.553 | 46.546 | 47.573 |
Bosnia and Herzegovina | 41.383 | 41.411 | 38.202 | 33.063 | 27.646 | 23.099 |
Ethiopia | 41.369 | 40.658 | 39.566 | 38.329 | 36.742 | 34.295 |
Argentina | 40.714 | 36.65 | 35.776 | 35.323 | 34.269 | 31.427 |
Serbia | 40.459 | 39.808 | 37.817 | 35.254 | 32.716 | 30.169 |
Senegal | 40.226 | 41.771 | 42.819 | 43.545 | 43.724 | 44.16 |
Venezuela | 40.175 | 42.135 | 43.834 | 45.533 | 47.231 | 48.924 |
South Africa | 39.551 | 41.724 | 42.792 | 42.515 | 41.075 | 37.896 |
Turkey | 39.406 | 37.571 | 36.432 | 35.439 | 34.681 | 33.961 |
Iraq | 38.868 | 33.645 | 28.988 | 26.591 | 25.165 | 20.456 |
Malawi | 38.785 | 36.984 | 35.149 | 33.329 | 31.592 | 29.688 |
Panama | 38.331 | 35.542 | 33.192 | 30.912 | 28.778 | 26.07 |
Madagascar | 38.082 | 37.992 | 38.259 | 38.611 | 39.297 | 39.664 |
Taiwan | 37.948 | 36.842 | 35.08 | 33.43 | 31.875 | 30.357 |
Romania | 37.803 | 37.711 | 37.462 | 36.818 | 35.96 | 35.005 |
Sweden | 37.296 | 34.891 | 32.21 | 29.324 | 26.153 | 22.807 |
Tajikistan | 36.461 | 37.239 | 37.961 | 37.915 | 37.626 | 36.184 |
Colombia | 36.308 | 35.407 | 33.966 | 32.687 | 31.47 | 29.854 |
Mozambique | 36.216 | 40.088 | 43.317 | 46.118 | 48.616 | 49.453 |
New Zealand | 35.781 | 36.372 | 36.498 | 36.146 | 33.746 | 31.676 |
Bolivia | 34.273 | 32.806 | 32.263 | 31.893 | 28.498 | 26.092 |
Democratic Republic of Congo | 34.158 | 39.169 | 39.348 | 40.926 | 40.455 | 40.058 |
Nepal | 33.144 | 32.696 | 32.55 | 32.457 | 32.359 | 32.335 |
Liberia | 31.032 | 30.23 | 32.166 | 36.251 | 37.851 | 42.155 |
Moldova | 30.39 | 32.421 | 31.886 | 29.993 | 27.737 | 25.358 |
Cambodia | 30.377 | 30.084 | 29.047 | 29.079 | 28.201 | 27.221 |
Chad | 30.27 | 26.416 | 24.106 | 21.928 | 19.837 | 18.565 |
Uganda | 30.262 | 30.11 | 29.251 | 28.491 | 28.018 | 29.34 |
Benin | 29.99 | 28.976 | 27.53 | 26.132 | 24.748 | 23.993 |
Central African Republic | 29.891 | 26.499 | 23.915 | 22.15 | 19.804 | 17.546 |
Burkina Faso | 29.283 | 30.675 | 31.685 | 32.55 | 33.258 | 34.118 |
Korea | 28.755 | 26.857 | 25.092 | 23.29 | 21.493 | 19.803 |
Mali | 27.301 | 25.039 | 22.776 | 23.477 | 24.212 | 24.895 |
Republic of Macedonia | 26.801 | 27.38 | 27.108 | 26.382 | 26.144 | 25.979 |
Honduras | 26.455 | 26.389 | 26.974 | 27.299 | 27.12 | 27.2 |
Zambia | 26.251 | 29.359 | 30.158 | 30.193 | 29.329 | 28.479 |
Angola | 25.979 | 22.221 | 22.01 | 21.877 | 21.836 | 21.478 |
Dominican Republic | 25.459 | 25.353 | 24.103 | 22.881 | 21.741 | 20.811 |
Indonesia | 25.42 | 24.048 | 22.762 | 21.758 | 21.055 | 19.912 |
Belarus | 25.303 | 27.058 | 29.479 | 29.842 | 31.763 | 32.741 |
Guatemala | 25.118 | 26.054 | 26.924 | 27.894 | 28.869 | 29.772 |
Swaziland | 24.979 | 29.295 | 31.889 | 33.191 | 34.238 | 34.406 |
Bahrain | 24.772 | 22.722 | 23.606 | 25.891 | 29.501 | 32.859 |
Namibia | 24.573 | 27.803 | 33.172 | 36.796 | 39.584 | 43.321 |
Togo | 24.342 | 23.322 | 22.192 | 21.08 | 20.205 | 19.541 |
Syria | 24.318 | 21.631 | 20.188 | 19.281 | 18.397 | 17.702 |
Australia | 24.099 | 24.843 | 23.311 | 23.593 | 21.771 | 20.648 |
Rwanda | 23.537 | 23.498 | 22.026 | 20.156 | 18.289 | 16.673 |
Solomon Islands | 23.357 | 20.928 | 19.466 | 17.484 | 15.689 | 14.08 |
Peru | 22.468 | 20.706 | 19.284 | 18.111 | 17.045 | 16.084 |
Ecuador | 20.367 | 19.812 | 19.322 | 18.253 | 17.686 | 17.382 |
Suriname | 20.042 | 18.551 | 18.56 | 17.129 | 15.547 | 13.772 |
Bulgaria | 19.724 | 19.955 | 19.748 | 18.814 | 17.263 | 15.224 |
Niger | 18.493 | 18.43 | 19.944 | 21.192 | 22.624 | 23.098 |
Luxembourg | 17.899 | 19.497 | 21.167 | 22.382 | 23.38 | 24.107 |
China | 17.089 | 16.268 | 15.004 | 13.387 | 10.85 | 9.721 |
Gabon | 16.473 | 14.657 | 14.371 | 14.126 | 13.66 | 13.134 |
United Arab Emirates | 16.381 | 14.489 | 13.734 | 13.047 | 12.194 | 11.39 |
Nigeria | 16.216 | 18.519 | 21.1 | 18.635 | 16.673 | 14.759 |
Turkmenistan | 16.181 | 21.304 | 19.069 | 16.65 | 12.157 | 7.006 |
Botswana | 16.013 | 14.109 | 12.42 | 10.663 | 9.101 | 7.863 |
Cameroon | 14.326 | 14.081 | 13.17 | 13.202 | 13.378 | 13.705 |
Qatar | 13.348 | 12.763 | 12.688 | 12.52 | 12.312 | 12.19 |
Congo | 12.98 | 12.429 | 12.998 | 13.37 | 13.604 | 13.667 |
Paraguay | 12.801 | 12.333 | 12.001 | 11.665 | 11.139 | 10.67 |
Kazakhstan | 12.589 | 14.056 | 15.282 | 16.245 | 17.368 | 18.11 |
Haiti | 12.28 | 16.781 | 20.34 | 23.512 | 26.281 | 29.11 |
Uzbekistan | 11.282 | 12.802 | 14.435 | 16.083 | 17.786 | 19.44 |
Chile | 10.92 | 10.217 | 9.645 | 9.05 | 8.476 | 7.955 |
Azerbaijan | 10.737 | 11.113 | 11.536 | 11.638 | 11.687 | 11.83 |
Iran | 9.474 | 8.362 | 7.458 | 6.611 | 5.86 | 5.175 |
Russia | 8.548 | 8.807 | 9.461 | 11.262 | 13.45 | 15.87 |
Equatorial Guinea | 8.539 | 10.285 | 8.893 | 7.03 | 4.679 | 2.472 |
Saudi Arabia | 8.309 | 7.13 | 6.225 | 5.295 | 4.442 | 3.718 |
Kuwait | 7.959 | 7.306 | 7.005 | 6.5 | 5.974 | 5.469 |
Estonia | 6.316 | 6.018 | 5.722 | 5.434 | 5.162 | 4.881 |
Hong Kong | 4.528 | 4.173 | 3.718 | 3.523 | 3.339 | 3.154 |
Oman | 4.066 | 3.238 | 2.493 | 1.812 | 1.161 | 5.151 |
Source: International Monetary Fund (IMF), World Economic Outlook Database of April 2011, for countries:
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